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Today’s Links

  • Coming of the Violent Global Revolutions
    Dr. Raju M. Mathew writes:
    The seeds of the present Islamic Terrorism, Global Economic Crisis, the Arab Springs and the Occupy Movement had been sown in Information Technology Revolutions, Petro-Dollars, Globalization, Consumerism and Corporate Culture of Greed. They had been programmed within IT, Globalization and Trade-in Services, though nobody was aware of it, even their greatest proponents. All states or religions or their development strategies have been built up within the mindset of the quarreling primitive tribal chiefs or warriors for the last several centuries.
  • Junior Gold Stocks Carnage
    As 2011 comes to a close, investors will reflect on one of the most tumultuous years in market history.  Though the stock markets were essentially flat on the year, those who’ve had skin in the game probably feel like they just stepped out of a barrel that went over Niagara Falls.
    In assessing what worked in 2011, investors can yet again take solace in “old reliable”.  For the eleventh consecutive year gold will have returned positive gains.  Not only has gold’s secular bull delivered consistency, it has delivered robust returns that have greatly rewarded investors.  Since its low of $256 in 2001, gold has soared 640% to its high earlier this year.  And with only a couple days remaining, gold is looking to close out 2011 with a 9%+ gain despite its recent selloff.
  • Further Gold Price Fall Seems Unlikely
    We are on the cusp of a new year, and this is the time that we take a look at those brave (or foolhardy) financial analysts who take out their crystal ball and predict where precious metal prices will go in 2012.
    But first let’s see how last year’s prognosticators (including Sunshine Profits) fared. We are talking about predictions for the very chaotic 2011.
  • Rothschild, U.S. Fed, Admit Nothing. Explain Nothing
    Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild, founder of the International Banking House of Rothschild said:
    “Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.”
    The Rothschild brothers, already laying the foundation for the Federal Reserve Act, wrote the following to New York associates in 1863:
  • Five U.S. Economy Economic Blunders of 2011 and Five Fixes for 2012
    David Zeiler writes : Government’s ability to fix the economy’s problems may be limited, but it at least should try not to make matters worse. Unfortunately – but not surprisingly – many of the things that happened in Washington this year did the U.S. economy more harm than good. More than two years after the official end to the recession, the U.S. economy is still suffering through sluggish growth and an 8.6% unemployment rate. “They’ve been wrong from the beginning, and they’re still wrong,” said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald of U.S. government policymakers. “It makes you wonder if any of these people passed Economics 101.” That said, here are five of the government’s worst economic blunders of 2011:
  • Financial Crisis Script for 2012
    Shah Gilani writes:
    Welcome to 2012, the third act of a tragic play. As an investor, you have a part in it.
    So, if you haven’t been paying attention to character development or lost sight of the plot, you’re going to be frozen onstage when it’s your turn to act.
  • Global Economic Collapse In 2012?
    MORAL AND ECONOMIC DECLINE
    This longstanding European genre-material for books, films, plays – and politics – dates from the end of the first world war, with a massive fillip in the 1930s long depression and rise of Stalin and Hitler, and this theme is surely back with a vengeance today. One reason is the decline isn’t only economic, it is also moral, social and psychological and the track record for doing anything about it is bad, both in Europe, USA and Asia. The conventional solution, the historical precedent of the 1930s decline was Muddle Through ending with a world war, but thinking that today is unthinkable.
  • Gold Records 11th Annual Gain, Ends 2011 Up 11% as World Stocks Drop 8%
    The PRICE OF PHYSICAL gold crept higher early Friday, recovering half of this week’s 5% loss to near 6-month lows as the Euro currency rallied from 12-month lows and world stock markets held flat.
    The last London Gold Fix of 2011 came in at $1574.50 per ounce – some 11.6% higher from the end of 2010, and recording gold’s 11th year of consecutive gains.
  • Rising Systemic Risk and Multiple Black Swans, Gaping Chasm between Economics and Physics
    Violation of the Laws of Physics?

    Does today’s dominant economic and financial thinking violate the laws of physics? Mainstream finance and economics have long been inconsistent with the underlying laws of thermodynamics, which are fast catching up as a result of globalisation.  At present, economics is the study of how people transform nature to meet their needs and it treats the exploitation of finite natural resources including energy, water, air, arable land and oceans as externalities, which they are not.  For example, we cannot pollute and damage natural ecosystems and their local communities ad infinitum without severe repercussions to their underlying sustainability. It is widely recognised both within the distinguished ATCA 5000 community across 120 countries and beyond that exchange rates instability, equity and commodity market speculation — particularly fuel, food and finance — and resultant volatilities as well as unsustainable levels of external debt are the main causes of asymmetric threats and disruption at the international level manifest as known unknowns, ie, low probability high impact risks and unknown unknowns or black swans. 

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Today’s Links

  • Cause and Effect, the Stock Market Is Not Physics
    The following series is excerpted from two classic issues of Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. Although originally published in 2004, the valuable series has been re-released in the Independent Investor eBook, along with over 100 pages of other reports that challenge conventional economic thinking.
  • The Top 10 Stock Market Myths Expose, Setting the Record Straight
    Not knowing the truth can be hazardous in just about any type of situation, but especially when it comes to your financial future.
    To help you decipher market truth from myth, Elliott Wave International put together Market Myths Exposed, a free 33-page eBook that takes the 10 most dangerous investment myths head on and exposes the truth about each in a way every investor can understand. Originally published in 2009, it’s still just as valuable as ever. Get your free eBook here.
  • Stock Market Looks Poised to Reverse Hard to Downside Within Days
    The market has been in the process of a near 13 Fibonacci week corrective rally since the October 4th 2011 lows at 1074 on the SP 500.  So far the highs reached on the initial rally of 218 points were in October at 1292.  That has remained the high water mark as we have consolidated over the last many weeks.  I expect the market to complete this counter-trend ABC bounce during the Dec 27th-29th window, followed by a good sized correction into Mid-January ahead of the earning season.
  • Another Asian Fukushima Nuclear Catastrophe Imminent?
    Taiwan imports 99 percent of its energy, which is vital to its rapidly industrializing economy.
    The island nation’s electricity demand was recently growing at almost 5 percent per year, but this is slowing to about 3.3 percent per annum to 2013. Nuclear power has been a significant part of the electricity supply for two decades and now provides 17 percent of the country’s overall energy needs.
  • Gold’s D-Wave Downtrend Forecast for 2012 Confirmed
    With the move below $1535 this morning gold has confirmed that it is still moving down into a D-Wave bottom. There has been some question as to whether or not the D-Wave had bottomed in September. The penetration of that intermediate low this morning confirms that the D-Wave did not end during the overnight selloff on September 26.
  • Stock Market Back on Crash Alert
    Yesterday the SPX decline to mid-cycle support/resistance at 1249.27. This morning it is taking a brief bounce to retest the 200 day moving average at 1258.87. As an alternate, it may challenge the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1259.02.

    Additional support may lie at the 50 day moving average at 1235.61 or the intermediate-term trend support at 1230.87. However, other circumstances dictate that those supports may have little influence on the decline.

  • Stocks Are Topping, Gold Has Topped and Gold & Silver Are Moving Lower
    The last week of the year volume tends to be light due to the fact that big money traders are busy enjoying the holidays and waiting for their yearend bonuses.
    I was not planning on doing much this week because of the low volume but after reviewing some charts and risk levels on my top 5 trading vehicles I could not help but share my findings with everyone last Friday.
  • Natural Gas Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
    Dr. Kent Moors writes: It has been a while since I responded to your many emails.
    So, as we await the latest developments in the European debt mess, today seems like a good time to answer a few. This time around, I am addressing some of your questions and comments that deal with natural gas.
  • Gold Breaks Lehman’s Uptrend on Forced Inter Bank Crisis Sales
    The WHOLESALE MARKET gold price fell further on Thursday in London, hitting its lowest London Gold Fix since 8th July at $1537.50 per ounce – 19% below Sept’s record high – on what dealers called "long liquidation" and "pressure" from the Eurozone debt crisis.

    New laws in Japan were also blamed for forced sales during Asian trade, with bullion dealers obliged to report all physical transactions above ¥2 million ($25,600) to the tax authorities starting New Year’s Day.

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Today’s Links

  • Solar Energy Breakthrough: Cheap Quantum Dot Solar Paint
    Researchers have reduced the preparation time of quantum dot solar cells to less than an hour by changing the form to a one-coat quantum dot solar paint.
    How?
  • Gold and Silver Bear, India Massive Keynesian Economic Failure
    2011 has been a truly enlightening year. We learned that change had not arrived, despite all our hope. We learned that the U.S. Congress cannot be trusted to prevent the financial calamity which lies ahead for the U.S. But most important, we learned that Keynesianism, a form of socialism taught in modern day academia, has been a complete failure, and perhaps a complete hoax.
  • U.S. Dollar being Replaced by China, Japan a Gold Positive!
    The Globalization Process for the Yuan
    Japan and China will promote direct trading of yen and yuan without using dollars and will encourage the development of a market for companies involved in the exchanges, the Japanese government said over the holiday weekend.
  • CO2 Emissions Allowances, Get Ready For A Tumble In Hot Air Credits
    Europe’s mandatory CO2 emissions allowances (called EUAs), and their alphabet soup of derived and related "financial instruments" have traced a boom and bust in notional or paper "value" similar to the paper shuffled by the USA’s voluntary scheme for "monetizing" carbon. In both cases the supposed goal was generating the financial support needed for Energy Transition away from fossil energy to low carbon green energy. At a moment when the European Commission and the EU’s investmenk bank the EIB are possibly taking actions which can implode the European carbon finance system, one of the many ironies is that 2011 in Europe was one of the warmest, or least cold years ever recorded. Despite this, restoring credibility and more important, the cash flows needed to keep high-living carbon traders at their playstations rolling the dice, is unlikely.
  • Stock Market Volatility Lurks
    The European Union is putting its money where its mouth is. Never taking the slightest blame for euro woes, its New York employees are moving to new offices at 666 Third Avenue. The EU’s United Nations delegation will "take about 45,000 square feet …. and pay about $60 a square foot annually for 15 years…." reported Bloomberg on December 23, 2011. Negotiations with its prospective new landlord, Tishman Speyer Properties L.P., are nearing completion. The real estate company should consider an anti-EU hedge at the moment the EU signs up.
  • London Gold and Silver Prices Catch Up with Indian Slump
    THE PRICE OF physical gold bullion fell again as London re-opened Wednesday after the Christmas and Boxing Day holidays, dropping to two-week lows against all major currencies in what dealers called a "very quiet session".

    London dealers returning to work caught up with a 1.4% drop for the week so far, plus news of falling industrial output in Japan, seasonally low jewelry demand in Indian – the world’s No.1 gold buying nation – and also a new edict from the People’s Bank of China, banning all non-official gold trading exchanges in the world’s No.2 gold consuming country.

  • Japanese Economy Slumps, Industrial Production Falls 2.6%
    A torrent of bad news hit Japan in November. Please consider some details from the Bloomberg article Japan Factory Output Falls on Global Slump
    Factory output fell 2.6 percent from October
    Exports fell for the second straight month
    Capital spending in the third quarter dropped 9.8 percent
    The Bank of Japan Tankan quarterly index of corporate sentiment fell to minus 4 this month. A negative figure indicates that pessimists outnumber optimists
  • What Will 2012 Bring for Global Central Banks Monetary Policy?
    he year of 2011 was an interesting and eventful year in monetary policy.  As the chart below shows, the GDP weighted average interest rate of central banks crept up in the first half of the year as commodity prices remained buoyant, economic recoveries showed signs of gaining momentum, and inflation was the key concern in emerging markets.  But this was then followed by a reversal in course in the later part of the year as the specter of the European debt crisis and slowing global growth raised downside risks for growth and price stability, spurring central bankers to cut rates and otherwise ease policy settings.
  • Central Bankers vs. Natural Stock Market Cycles in 2012
    Government fiscal policy and central bank monetary policy have the specific goal of stamping out the business cycle. Governments have been intervening in the economy and financial markets with fiscal policies for thousands of years. Central banking, at least its current form of the last one-hundred years or so, offers more sophisticated and less transparent methods of intervention including interest rates, quantitative easing (QE), reserve requirements, currency swap lines, bank loans, etc. Use of these tools has risen sharply in recent decades, but they have never really worked. It is time to realize that business cycles and their accompanying market cycles are natural forces that are here to stay.

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Today’s Links

  • Banking Stocks Downtrend Still Dominant
    Despite last week’s rally in the major trader/broker banks, let’s notice that none of the upmoves in Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) inflicted significant damage to the still-dominant downtrends.
    You can see the near- and intermediate-term resistance levels labeled on the enclosed charts. Only BAC made a new low (4.92) for the bear phase, and then staged a 15% multi-day rally to 5.65, but appears to have stalled right at its nearest-term hourly resistance line.
  • Economic Collapse Stealth Mode In Asia – Jim Rogers Moves To China
    In interview with Lelde Smits of Australia’s Finance News Network Jim Rogers said he is proud his two children speak Mandarin so well they can ask for a Big Mac in Pekin and not get a Donald Duck flashlight or a knockoff designer T shirt instead. Rogers said that Asia is weathering the storm and told Lelde Smits he has voted with his feet and set up shop in Singapore (because air pollution is so out of sight in mainland China’s cities) but feared that Asia’s going to suffer, all the same, for sure and certain, because Europe and the USA are going down the tube.
  • China Cracks Down on Gold Exchanges
    Governments hate competition. Due to record breaking gold prices this year, more unauthorized gold exchanges have been created to capitalize on gold fever. However, China regulators are not happy about the competition.
    A joint statement issued by People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Public Security and other regulators recently announced, “No local authority, institution or individual is allowed to set up gold exchanges.” In essence, gold exchanges in China, except for two in Shanghai are to be banned. The joint statement also explained that the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange are sufficient enough to meet domestic investor demand for spot gold and futures trading.
  • Euro-zone Credit Implosion Secret, ECB Cannot Stop Collateral Contagion Collapse!
    How long can the European media keep the EU credit implosion a secret? The disgraced former IMF Director, Demonic Strauss Kahn said on Tuesday December 12th, 2011 that No ‘Firewall’ Exists and Europe Has ‘Only Weeks’. Of course within minutes of this Financial Times news release which detailed his vent on EU leadership and the perilous situation in Europe, the article disappeared.
  • Gold Might Have Already Hit Rock Bottom
    If you’re looking for a post-Christmas read, take a look at a book called “The Great Stagnation” by Tyler Cowen of George Mason University whose theme is laid out in its subtitle: “How America ate all the low-hanging fruit of modern history, got sick and will (eventually) feel better.”
    The interesting aspect of this book is Prof Cowen’s explanation on how the US got into its predicament.
  • What Happened To Economic Growth?
    The magical invention of economic growth needs the magic of invention, and technological-type invention is always around and available the optimists tell us. When it isn’t, like now, doctoring the numbers and letting them doctor themselves with false overvalued monetary units "measuring" the growth that is not there will pass muster, the optimists don’t tell us. Doctoring growth that isn’t also draws on productivity gains that aren’t, using the same vastly overvalued money units that "measure" growth: for how many years have we had productivity gains (or claims) at 6% or more every year ? In plenty of national cases, simply inverting claimed productivity gains, and claimed rates of inflation, will give a much more honest picture of what is going on. This now longstanding and traditional doctoring of the data, both deliberate and inadvertent, extended over 10 and 15 years or more, gives us vastly different readouts for the real situation: which is bad.
  • The NDAA Repeals More Rights
    Little by little, in the name of fighting terrorism, our Bill of Rights is being repealed. The 4th amendment has been rendered toothless by the PATRIOT Act. No more can we truly feel secure in our persons, houses, papers, and effects when now there is an exception that fits nearly any excuse for our government to search and seize our property. Of course, the vast majority of Americans may say “I’m not a terrorist, so I have no reason to worry.” However, innocent people are wrongly accused all the time. The Bill of Rights is there precisely because the founders wanted to set a very high bar for the government to overcome in order to deprive an individual of life or liberty. To lower that bar is to endanger everyone. When the bar is low enough to include political enemies, our descent into totalitarianism is virtually assured.
  • Responsible New York Banking
    Founded in 1882, the Bank of Cattaraugus (B of C) exception proves the rule. Located in Western New York, it’s miles from Wall Street’s cesspool of fraud, market manipulation, grand theft, bailouts, and influence peddling in league with corrupt politicians getting generous campaign contribution bribes in return.

    B of C calls itself "one of the oldest and strongest banks in New York state. (It’s) a full-service, independent bank that provides financial services with a hometown touch. Personal, friendly service is our signature trademark, and we’re dedicated to give back to the communities we service."

  • Unrelenting Global Economic Crisis: A Doomsday View of 2012
    The economic, political and social outlook for 2012 is profoundly negative. The almost universal consensus, even among mainstream orthodox economists is pessimistic regarding the world economy. Although, even here, their predictions understate the scope and depth of the crises, there are powerful reasons to believe that beginning in 2012, we are heading toward a steeper decline than what was experienced during the Great Recession of 2008 – 2009. With fewer resources, greater debt and increasing popular resistance to shouldering the burden of saving the capitalist system, the governments cannot bail out the system.

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Today’s Links

  • A Few Chinese Bad News Bears To Spoil A Happy New Year
    Goldman’s Jim O’Neill noted in a recent interview that the world’s future prosperity depends on China’s growth. While we don’t totally agree with that assessment as we see China as one of the many contributory factors towards world’s future, there are some recent bad news bears coming out of China that could spell troubles for markets, at least in 2012.
  • Social Crisis in America: Uniting Occupy and Labor Over Health Care
    Politicians are attacking Medicare and Medicaid on all sides–Democrats and Republicans alike. Obama’s national health care bill will slash hundreds of billions from Medicare over the next decade, an act supported by so-called "progressive" Democrats. Soon after this "victory" Obama created the Super Committee to balance the budget, which included automatic "triggers"– if no decision was reached — that are now slated to cut $600 billion more from Medicare.
  • Oil Crisis In 2012
    Will we have a massive oil crisis in 2012 ? If it happened, what would it do to the struggling global economy ?
    One other question is easier to answer: can we compare this almost certain coming crisis with the Hunt for the Quark, snark or Higgs boson ? Defenders of the claim the Higgs boson exists only have their research budgets and scientific kudos to worry about, but defenders of the present de facto claim that global oil supply is secure "because of high oil prices" face a much more complex challenge.
  • Crush Labor and Impose Economic Austerity, Draghi’s ECB Real Goal in the Eurozone
    Imagine if your banker offered to lend you a $150,000 to make up for the money that you’d lost on your home since the housing bubble burst in 2006. And, let’s say, he agreed to lend you this money for 3 years at rock-bottom rates of 1 percent provided that you post the contents of your garage  (ie. rusty bikes, a bent basketball hoop, an old dollhouse, and rodent-infested luggage) as collateral on the loan.
  • Stock Market Inflection Point
    After a rough beginning on monday US stocks surged tuesday, following the ECB’s successful LTRO results, then continued higher for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were +3.65% and the NDX/NAZ were +2.25%. Asian markets gained 0.6%, European markets surged 3.5%, and the DJ World index rose 3.0%. Economic reports in the US were mixed, with positives outnumbering negatives 8:7. On the uptick: NAHB, housing starts, building permits, consumer sentiment, durable goods orders, new home sales, the monetary base, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: existing home sales, Q3 GDP, leading indicators, FHFA, personal income, the M1-multiplier and the WLEI. Next week, a holiday shortened week, Case-Shiller and the Chicago PMI.
  • Boxing Day Sales List Upto 75% Discounts at High Street Stores John Lewis, Next and Debenhams
    Britain’s high streets and shopping malls are expected to be full on Boxing day with shoppers taking advantage of advertised deep discounts of as much as 75% as the Christmas Day online sales in part switch to the High Streets, with early starts for many stores such as 6am for Next and 7am for Debenhams. However given the fact that many of the sales are already online for over 40 hours before the high street stores open, there is great potential for high street retailers disappointment especially as increasingly more sophisticated smartphone using cash strapped shoppers use the high streets merely as showrooms before finally buying online as part of the shopping meg-trend of online stores putting high street’s out of business.

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Today’s Links

  • Boxing Day Sales List Upto 75% Discounts at High Street Stores John Lewis, Next and Debenhams
    Britain’s high streets and shopping malls are expected to be full on Boxing day with shoppers taking advantage of advertised deep discounts of as much as 75% as the Christmas Day online sales in part switch to the High Streets, with early starts for many stores such as 6am for Next and 7am for Debenhams. However given the fact that many of the sales are already online for over 40 hours before the high street stores open, there is great potential for high street retailers disappointment especially as increasingly more sophisticated smartphone using cash strapped shoppers use the high streets merely as showrooms before finally buying online as part of the shopping meg-trend of online stores putting high street’s out of business.
  • Christmas Day Online Mega Sales at NEXT, House of Fraser, Debenhams, Marks & Spencer and John Lewis
    The high street shops may have closed early afternoon on Christmas Eve but within a few hours the online sales soon went live and will remain live for the whole of Christmas day, most notable in terms of offering deep discounts on a large number of products are Next, House of Fraser, Debenhams, Marks & Spencer and John Lewis, who have a useful tool that allows shoppers to browse by discount level i.e. 30% off, 50% off or 70% off.

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Today’s Links

  • Stock Market Holiday Short Squeeze and Crude Oil Trade Idea
    Typically, the week before Christmas, stocks and commodities drift higher due to the lack of participants.  Light volume favours higher prices, which is why stocks want to rise going into the holiday season.
    The big money players, like hedge fund managers, are finished for the year.  They’re sitting on the sidelines enjoying the holiday season while waiting for their year-end bonus checks.
  • Why Buy Gold Now, Forecast $4,500
    On the economic front we see that for the month of October personal income had gained 0.4% while spending had increased 0.1%. For November, economists polled by MarketWatch had expected personal income to gain 0.2%, and for spending to also rise 0.2%. Meanwhile, there was no growth in November for the price index for personal consumption expenditures, though this inflation gauge is up 2.5% from the prior year. The core inflation reading, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.1% in November, matching economists’ expectations. Compared with the prior year, core inflation is up 1.7%. The personal-saving rate declined to 3.5% in November from 3.6% in October, and down considerably from the 7.1% rates we saw during the summer. Finally we see that credit card debt increased considerably during the month of October.
  • Stock Market Bulls Closing In….
    One week ago the market was closing in on breaking down below S&P 500 1225. It failed to hold the breakdown once it occurred as the bears just couldn’t find any momentum once the level was taken out. A slow grind lower ensued, with the bulls, eventually, holding the line in the sand. Here we are with the bulls trying to press through massive resistance between 1260/1657. You need a gap up and out to confirm the move, so we’ll be looking for that on Tuesday when we open for trading once again. The bears choked big time when they had their chance, especially since they actually broke through key support at 1225. Now, the bulls are on the precipice of breaking through their major headache resistance area. Let’s see what they can, or can’t, do with it.
  • Stock Markets in a Pre-Crash Pattern
    – The VIX appears to be nearing completion of a doubly indicated bullish Descending Wedge pattern on December 27. It will then have completed a Master Cycle low, beginning a new bullish cycle pattern for the VIX. The master cycle low appears to have been delayed, but I wish to assure you that the low will occur within turn window allowed for it. What follows may be a breakout above the wedge as early as the end of next week.
  • Europe Bond Market To Remain Problematic For Stocks In 2012
    Wall Street tends to segregate “bond-guys” from “stock guys”. The bond side of the market tends to be more conservative; they also perform more detailed research meaning they actually look at the numbers. The stock side of the market is based more on momentum, gut feel, and stories.
  • U.S. the Payroll Tax ‘Holiday’ Extension a Festivus Miracle for GDP?
    In recent days many economists were preparing to lower their 2012 GDP forecasts in case Congress could not reach an agreement to extend the 2% reduction in the employee contribution to the payroll (FICA) tax. I kept getting questions on how much I was going to lower my forecast if the tax holiday were not extended. And I kept responding, 0.0%.
  • UK Christmas Eve Shopping Sales 2011, High Street 75% Discounts: 24th Dec
    UK Shoppers are continuing to enjoy deep discounts as distressed retailers have brought forward their traditional boxing day sales several days early by offering discounts of as much as 75% in an attempt to boost consumer interest as so far December retail sales have failed to live upto retailer expectations. Christmas Eve is expected to see record shopping during the limited opening hours which will be further boosted by very mild weather for the time of year.
  • Christmas Eve Online Sales, NEXT, John Lewis, House of Fraser, Marks and Spencer
    As the high street stores close today for Christmas the sales will not stop as the focus shifts online, especially as those retailers that have so far held off on starting their sales will open their online doors ahead of their high street stores on boxing day, this most notably includes NEXT, John Lewis, Marks & Spencer and PC World / Curry’s.

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Today’s Links

  • Gold Tilts Towards a Short-term Move Up
    Why anyone would rather stuff their Christmas stockings with fiat currency than with physical gold is beyond understanding. To us “dash for cash” seems rash.
    There has certainly been very little Christmas cheer for gold bulls recently. The beating is tough, but it’s not the first time we’ve experienced it, nor is it likely to be the last in a secular bull market that has still has years to run. Gold takes four steps forward and then three back. We just have to stay in the game.
  • The Stock Market and Recession Crazes
    Recession is a four-letter word in the financial markets, striking terror into the hearts of everyone.  And if reports since August are to be believed, there is a recession hiding behind every tree.  For a myriad of reasons, economists have argued we are due to plunge into the next one any day now.  But speculators and investors have to understand how recession talk is spawned, sometimes leading to recession crazes.
  • Gold Christmas Week Rally Spied as ECB Member Sees "No Reason" Not to Use Q.E.
    WHOLESALE PRICES to buy gold were little changed in London on Friday, ending the short pre-Christmas session at $1607 per ounce, some 0.6% higher against the Dollar from last week’s finish.

    Silver prices also held flat, moving in a tight range below $29.50 per ounce and recording a London Fix almost 1.9% down for the week at midday.

  • European Debt Is ‘Obviously Unserviceable’
    Referencing Kyle Bass’ work in a December 18 video, we noted numerous countries have an unstable combination of debt and revenue relative to the size of their banking system. Another excellent source for debt sustainability analysis comes from Jeffery Gundlach, manager of the 2011 top-performing U.S. bond fund. Mr. Gundlach was recently interviewed by the Financial Times. He does not subscribe to the theory European leaders can “put a Band Aid on a system which didn’t break a week ago, or a month ago, or a year ago. It’s been in the process for years.” His analysis came to the same conclusion as Mr. Bass’; default on unpayable obligations will occur. He also believes growing the way out of the problem is not an option since the debt is “obviously unserviceable”.
  • Markets the Friday Before Christmas, Even NYMEX Crooks Are Going Home Early
    Really guys! 
    Don’t we all have something better to do than watch the markets today?
    I’m embarrassed for all of us.  Even the crooks at the NYMEX are going home at 1:30 this afternoon, sacrificing an entire hour of losing money to us to be with their strippers.  That’s right we OWNED those people yesterday, hitting play after play after play on the oil Futures, all based on our very simple premise that – If the crooks at the NYMEX want to pretend they want to buy a barrel of oil for $100 – we are very happy to promise to sell it to them!  
  • Market Forecasts 2012, The Dow’s Annus Horribilis and Gold’s…
    I must admit that I do not prescribe to the 2012 end of the world or end of an era phenomenon; however, my recent analysis suggests that 2012 could indeed be a very significant year.
    I have been following a fractal (pattern) on the Dow chart for the last couple of years. I have written about it before, in a previous article. Basically, the Dow chart is forming a similar pattern to that which was formed in the late 60s to early 70s.
  • United States the Ununited Empire
    The American president is the most important political leader in the world. The reason is simple: he governs a nation whose economic and military policies shape the lives of people in every country on every continent. The president can and does order invasions, embargos, and sanctions. The economic policies he shapes will resonate in billions of lives, perhaps over many generations. During the next decade, who the president is and what he (or she) chooses to do will often affect the lives of non-Americans more than the decisions of their own governments.
  • U.S. Congress Handing Out Stock Tips to Hedge Fund Managers
    David Zeiler writes:
    As if trading on insider information gleaned from their legislative duties wasn’t bad enough, now it turns out Congress has been passing that information on to hedge fund managers as well.
    That’s helped many hedge fund managers make the same sort of lucrative bets in the stock market that has enriched members of Congress.
  • Occupy Wall Street, Consider This My Gift to You…
    Shah Gilani writes:
    Out of far left field, I see something coming that I never expected.
    It’s more like the coming together of pieces of a puzzle that have eluded us for too long.
    By the way, Occupy Wall Street, if you’re listening, and I hope you are, and you’re still floundering (which I know you are) without a cause that anybody can really wrap their heads around, drop your drums, chants, and wanderings, and make the coming together of this puzzle what you’re protesting.

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Today’s Links

  • Germany’s Mindbending Green Energy Plan
    PROLIFERATING PLANS
    Germany’s plans to abandon nuclear power includes worries about nuclear proliferation, but the nuclear exit plan itself only appeared on the radar screen as the Japanese Fukushima reactor complex went down under tsunami storm surges. Until December 2010, Angela Merkel’s coalition government was handing out 10-year life extensions for nuclear plant operators like anywhere else in the world of "cheap clean and safe" low carbon nuclear energy. Fukushima only added another strand to Germany’s mindbending plans and programmes for achieving huge cuts in CO2 emissions, with the percentage cuts from a 1990 baseline programmed right through to 2075-2085, when Germany should have almost totally quit using fossil fuels – or will have found ways of totally capturing and sequestering carbon emissions from fossil energy.
  • Essential Investor Knowledge For Maximizing Real Gains Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Equities & The U.S. Dollar
    “Since its inception in 1913, The Federal Reserve Board has been responsible for almost 95% devaluation of the U.S. Dollar. All this has been achieved through its ability to continually inflate the money supply.
    And, between 1985 and 2005, the Federal Reserve Board has increased the money supply by five times. This extraordinary money creation is merely the catalyst for debt creation. In a fiat money system, money is debt…there is absolutely no way this money can ever be repaid except by continued inflation. But, now that the credit bubble is blown up, inflation is no longer an option; bankruptcy looms.”
  • What’s Up with Gold Mining Stocks?
    Claims that the gold bull market has ended are incorrect. One of the main causes of recently lower precious metals prices is the fact that the U.S. dollar has strengthened against the Euro. Since the U.S. dollar is the world reserve currency, a stronger dollar lowers the U.S. dollar prices of global commodities. Also, financial flights to safety, e.g., out of the Euro or European sovereign bonds, temporarily increase demand for U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasuries, strengthening the U.S. dollar against other currencies and lowering U.S. Treasury yields.
  • Restoring Economic Growth Is Not Possible, Invisible Mending ?
    There are no shortage of search engine hits with "Restore economic growth". In Europe, the eye of the storm for ever more complex and unsure, but supposedly market friendly debt control plays that finally depend on even more government borrowing, restoring economic growth always figures somewhere on the teleprompter for leading edge interviews by political deciders. The quest to retore economic growth is always cited as a goal by deciders, but they know, and we know that it isnt possible.
  • Plan to Keep Your Assets Safe From an Out-of-control Government
    Terry Coxon, Casey Research writes: By keeping all your assets in the country where you live, you commit, ahead of time, to ratify whatever policy your home government might adopt, no matter how objectionable, unreasonable or pernicious that policy happens to be. If the next new mandate is “Register today to get a nail pounded into your head,” you’re already signed up.
    Americans, by and large, run all their affairs within the confines of the US. The US economy is so large and so varied that it’s easy to assume that everything you want to do with your wealth can be done without crossing any borders. And people in the US, like people anywhere, live with the habits and attitudes developed over generations. They’re only human. In the case of Americans, those habits grew out of long experience with a government that was small and that generally practiced the rare virtue of following its own laws. In a happy exception to mankind’s experience with rulers, there was little to fear from it.
  • Gold Flat in Thin Holiday Trade as Euro Stocks Rally
    THE PRICE OF spot gold bullion was little changed Thursday morning in London, easing back from $1610 per ounce after yesterday’s sharp spike and pullback in what dealers again called "thin" trade ahead of Christmas.
    European stock markets reversed Wednesday’s drop to trade near two-week highs.
  • U.S. Fed Lets Banks Off the Hook… Again
    David Zeiler writes:
    We’ve told you before that the U.S. Federal Reserve puts Wall Street’s interest above that of the American public. And yesterday (Wednesday) the central bank proved it… again.
    Confronted with the opportunity to enact meaningful change to the regulatory system, the Fed punted on its responsibility to protect the public from the very banks that brought down the global economy.
  • End Your Exposure to this Eurozone Debt Crisis Victim
    Jack Barnes writes:
    Around this time last year I warned you that the Eurozone debt crisis would trample the Italian economy and take carmaker Fiat S.p.A. (PINK: FIATY) down with it.
    To profit from this debacle, I told you to short Fiat. Since then, the stock has tumbled 76%, from $19 a share to yesterday’s (Wednesday’s) closing price of $4.66.
  • How the Pentagon Will Create Space Travel Profits
    Michael Robinson writes:
    The mainstream media was all over Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) co-founder Paul Allen’s recent announcement proclaiming he intends to "transform" the space industry.
    But they missed the real story – one that will make a few savvy investors a small fortune.
    If you want big profits from the next generation of space travel, keep an eye on new developments at a small but highly respected research arm of the Pentagon.

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Today’s Links

  • Paper and Physical Gold Price Divergence, COMEX On The March To Irrelevance
    Divergence between paper gold and physical gold price is happening, the process begun. Actual physical shortages have kept the price up. The naked shorting of futures has kept the paper price down. The fraud cases and lawsuits, with no hint of prosecution, provide the levered force to create much wider divergence, as traders and entire firms depart the tainted crime scene that is the COMEX. Trust has vanished along with private accounts. At the center of the backdrop for the divergence, apart from the criminal events, is the economic deterioration and asset market downdraft. It leads to margin calls, loan payment obligations, fading investor confidence, negative sentiment, and a desire to avoid loss. Hence the huge liquidity concerns, selling of good assets that command a strong price, and central bank encouragement of gold sales even with lease. These forces conspire to push down the gold futures price from the discovery process, called the paper gold price. These forces, although real, are exaggerated by the Syndicate to explain all. On the other side is the desperation among central bankers to cover debt securities up for sale or rollover funding. They resort to utter hyper inflation by monetizing the many types of government bonds. They are obligated to aid their banker cohorts, and thus purchase truckloads of badly impaired sovereign bonds and other collateralized bonds. Over time these sovereign bonds have proved toxic.
  • Eye on Euro and Gold
    Well, wouldn’t we all like to know what new ECB head Draghi is thinking about Mr. Market’s response to his "cheap money give-away" right about now.
    EUR/USD has plunged from 1.3200 to 1.3030/40, which has dragged down all the sympathetic and synchronized global equity and commodity markets too — all in the last two hours or so!
  • Stock Market SPX SELL
    Trying to sell/sell short on the initial plunge is a dubious endeavor. However, the snap-back often gives you a better entry.
    Those that went flat yesterday now have an opportunity to re-enter.
  • Gold "Does Not Offer Comfort in Liquidity Crunch", European Banks "Could Not Refuse" ECB’s "Free Money" Offer
    U.S. DOLLAR gold bullion prices dropped to $1609 an ounce Wednesday lunchtime in London – 1.9% down from the high for the week so far, set less than three hours earlier.
    Stocks and commodities also traded lower following an announcement by the European Central Bank about its latest liquidity operation.
  • Gold Outlook 2012 – Positive Fundamentals Remain and Crucial Diversification
    • Introduction – Gold in 2011
    • Money Creating Central Banks May Push Gold to New Nominal Record in 2012 
    • Central Banks Will Continue To Be Net Buyers of Gold
    • China Foreign Exchange Diversification Should Support Demand
  • Our Financial "Regulators" Just Let Us Down Again
    David Zeiler writes:
    The Dodd-Frank Act became law 18 months ago, and it may be hard to believe, but we still aren’t any better off now than we were then.
    Indeed, the regulators that are supposed to be protecting us from a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis can’t – or refuse – to get the job done.
  • Russian Oil Rig Disaster Reveals Growing Problem in Supply Access
    Dr. Kent Moors writes:
    Earlier this week, an oil platform sank off the Russian Pacific coast in frigid, stormy waters.
    The Kolskaya had been stationed off far northeastern Russia, and capsized when engineers were moving the jack-up rig from ongoing drilling projects in the Sea of Okhotsk to the western coast of Sakhalin Island. Accounts from the 14 survivors mention waves in excess of 20 feet.
  • Collective Action to Prolong Economic Depression
    Have yourself a merry little depression…
    What’s this? Christine Lagarde, IMF chief, said last week that the world’s nations needed to work together to avoid a 1930s-style depression.
    But seeing the way they work together…and where they seem to be headed…we’d prefer a depression.
  • Learning from MF Global Bankruptcy
    In this article we look at how the failure of MF Global might affect the financial markets and trade in general. We learn from one of the gold market’s most famous investors, Jim Sinclair, and hear how this incident might affect the gold price. Mr Sinclair’s comments are worth reading for all investors but especially those inclined toward gold and silver.
    During our spare moments reading apparently ‘anoraky’ financial books, we come across the odd gem that we excitedly recommend to our friends for a week or two in a flush of enthusiasm.

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